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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple formula. It commonly acts as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your team in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the coach who engineered the most dramatic resurgence receives the award. However, it creates an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior coaching or simply the greatest surprise.

Yet the current field is profoundly different. The list of contenders is unusually deep. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with recent division champions falling away and recent also-rans rising collectively. During an typical season, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this chaotic and fun season, he's competing with several other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the ideal ballot should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his rare talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained excellence. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system rather than going rogue. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a steady dose of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to create magic out of nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has worked. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the building with the immense hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a ordinary year, he would be the overwhelming choice. But this isn't a typical campaign!

The area where Johnson's case runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. However Johnson comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has excelled at the leadership aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff blend of youth and experience, he bet on first-timers. From the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. But he has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

Following an early hot start, there was a risk that the season would go off the track. A mid-year setback caused the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year case has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still